'Bullet Trains': Euphoria of Ignorance

Bimal Prasad Pandia

Is 'bullet train' a new idea? Has the budget made adequate provision to justify the hype?? Are such projects viable and desirable??? This article tries to have a critical look at this aspect of the rail budget.   

As media played out ‘bullet trains’ and ‘high speed corridors’ in bold letters after the rail budget was tabled in the Parliament, general people were naturally made to believe that something new and historic has been announced. People in the government want us to believe that it is a new thing for India and a dream of their leader.  Not so, say their political detractors. The dream is neither new nor there is substantial in the budget to justify the hype, the detractors argue. There is a third group which say that though the idea of bullet train is glamorous and draw awe, they are least viable and obviously a burden on the people of a country like India.  Let us do a reality check.

We will have a look at three issues, (a) whether both the above decisions are out of box forward looking dreams; (b) whether the budget has made enough provisions to realise the announcements; and (c) whether the idea of bullet train is feasible and required.

The first issue under our scanner is whether the decisions of bullet train and high speed corridor is an idea which are spelled out by our government for the first time? Referring to bullet train project between Mumbai and Ahmedabad, the rail minister says, "We propose bullet trains by starting off with an already identified Mumbai-Ahmedabad sector, where a number of studies have been done." This statement itself indicates that the idea of bullet trains in India is not being mooted for the first time and studies have already been done. The first feasibility study done by RDSO and JICA was published in 1987. The first proposal to introduce high-speed trains in India was mooted in the mid-1980s by then Railway Minister Madhavrao Scindia (See: http://onrails.in/content/proposed-bullet-trainhigh-speed-rail-network-india.html). Later, Indian Railways prepared a ‘Vision 2020’ action plan in 2009 during Ms Mamata Banerjee's tenure (See: http://www.indianrailways.gov.in/railwayboard/uploads/directorate/infra/downloads/VISION_2020_Eng_SUBMITTED_TO_PARLIAMENT.pdf). The cover page of that document carries photo of bullet trains. The vision 2020 envisages, "the implementation of at least 4 high speed rail projects to provide bullet train services at 250-350 kmph, one in each of the regions of the nation and planning for at least 8 more corridors connecting commercial, tourist and pilgrimage hubs." The vision document spells that since the railways is facing fund crunch such high speed corridors/bullet trains will be implemented in a Public-Private-Participation (PPP) mode. So there is nothing new in this year's budget about private participation as well. Dinesh Trivedi, Rail Minister two years ago, had set the ball rolling further. Sri Trivedi had allocated Rs 6,447 Cr for this purpose (see the budget speech: http://www.indianrailways.gov.in/railwayboard/uploads/directorate/finance_budget/Budget12-13/Speech%20English%202012-13.pdf). The survey for bulllet trains had started even before Mr Trivedi's tenure (See: http://www.tokyotimes.com/japan-pitches-bullet-trains-in-india/). Similar is the case with 'high speed rail corridors'. Survey and work has already been initiated in previous years. The high-speed rail corridor project was proposed in the 2010 railway budget. A total of six high-speed corridors were proposed in the budget (See: http://www.alfaventures.com/horizon/news/bullet_train.html). The 'High Speed Rail Corporation of India Ltd (HSRC)' was set up on 25 July 2012. Thus, this budget is the not the first one to sow high speed and bullet train dreams. But the way a hype is being created around the speed factor of trains is certainly unprecedented.

Now let us see if such hype is being supported with substantial budgetary commitments from the government. In other words, does the rail budget make appropriate budgetary provisions to justify the hype of bullet / high speed trains? Compared to other research requirement this was a simple thing as we had to see the budget's 'demand for grant' component alone. At page 2.9.2 of the 'demand for grant' document (http://www.indianrailways.gov.in/railwayboard/uploads/directorate/finance_budget/2014-15_Final/DB_2014_15_Part_II.pdf), under heading 'Miscellenous expenditure', the minister proposes a budget of Rs 33.07 Cr for 'high speed corridor'. In the previous year it was Rs 18 Cr. So, though this activity has an enhanced budget this year compared to previous year, this is not substantially higher. The minister has proposed a total of Rs 100 Cr for high speed corridor (See: Page 16.03.3 of 'demand for grant'). It will be a shame to even call it a fraction. The proposed allocation is 0.0000000011% of the estimated cost of the golden quadrilateral project. The Minister in his budget speech had said that the golden quadrilaterl high-speed rail project will require Rs 9 lakh Crore. This required amount is nearly six times of the gross traffic receipt that Indian railways earned in year 2013-14. the gross traffic receipt in year 2013-14 was Rs 139,558 Crore. While 'high speed corridor' at least has some budget provision, the bullet train idea has simply remained as an idea. There is no provison what-so-ever for the bullet train. Is it not an irony that an idea, which has remained as an idea alone and that too not a new idea, and not any concrete action is marketed as a vision, a dream?

Now let us discuss whether 'bullet train' projects are feasible and required in a country like India. In his budget speech the Minister informs that Rs 60,000 Crore is required to run one bullet train alone. We are not sure the distance he is referring to. If he is referring to the declared Mumbai-Ahmedabad corridor (about 500 kms long) then per kilometer cost is Rs 120 Cr. A feasibility study conducted by RITES in 2010 pegged the average cost at about Rs 100 Cr. The Wu-Guang HSR line in China did cost about Rs 108 Cr per kilometer. The Japanese routes cost a lot more as they are fully elevated and protected.

With such high cost of bullet train projects two issues emerge: (a) whether government or companies can bear such cost, and (b) whether passengers can pay to recover the cost. Many countries in the world, including the most developed countries, have tried their hand and have either burnt or retreated. America's fastest train Amtrak’s Acela Express between Wilmington and Baltimore Penn travels at 169.4 km/hour. Canda's Bombardier Transportation's LRC was designed for 200 km/h normal operating speed but its speed never exceeded the 170 km/h limit mandated by line signalling. Even the most popular Shinkasen trains of Japan became bankrupt only to be bought by a private company later at peanut price. The United States does not have a bullet train. Only two high speed train routes in the world (between Tokyo and Osaka in Japan); and between Paris and Lyon in France) are earning profit (See: http://www.downsizinggovernment.org/transportation/high-speed-rail). All other are in loss, huge loss. The European countries are pouring in huge money to keep the bullet trains running. Analysts have found that most proponents of high-speed rail projects tend to overstate their benefits and understate their costs (See: http://www.downsizinggovernment.org/transportation/high-speed-rail).

While very high cost of such projects act as a big deterrant, it must also be assessed whether Indian passengers have the paying capacity to recover the cost, leave alone make the projects profitable. The London to France journey, of about 450 kms, in a Eurostar bullet train will cost a minimum of 110 GB Pound (about Rs 11,200). General class of the Japanese Shinkasen train costs 14,140 Yen (about Rs 8,350) for about 550 Km journey from Tokyo to Osaka. It must be kept in mind here that the Tokyo to Osaka bullet trains run with a frequency similar to Delhi metro. It has a train every three to five minutes in peak hours. With lower frequency of trains cost per passenger will increase. It is not known what will be the density of bullet trains between Ahmedabad and Mumbai. But certainly it is not going to be in minutes. Even if we assume that the frequency will be quite high still there will not be many in India who can shell out about Rs 20 per km, which is substantially higher than current air fares in India, to travel in a bullet train.

This government which seeks a honeymoon period for it believes in trendy marketing and glamorous packaging. The floating of ideas like ‘bullet trains’ and ‘high speed corridors’ seem to me as part of such strategy. At least, the budget has nothing to substantiate the stated intentions. Besides, bullet trains may not be most appropriate idea for a country like India where the most recent estimation of poverty has added few more millions to the list.