ଦୁଖର ପସ୍‍ରା ଗରିବ ଦୁଖିକର, ତାତିରେ ହେଉଛନ‌୍‍ ଖର୍‍‍ଡି

ଭାବ୍‍ନା ରାଇଜେ ଭୁରା ଟିକେ ନାଇଁ ଦୁବ୍‍ ଘାସ୍‍ର ବି କଡ୍‍କି
ଜଗତିଆ ଯେତେ ଜଲି ଯାଉଛନ୍‍ ଭୁଗୁଛନ୍‍ ଦଶା ମାର୍‍କି
ମୁନୁଷ୍‍ମାନ୍‍କର ଭୁର୍‍କୁଟି ପନେ ପର୍‍‍କୁତି ମା ଭିର୍‍କି
ଜୁଗାରି ଦେଉଛେ ନିଆଁ ସମ୍‍ ତାତି, ପଡୁଛନ‌୍‍ ସଭେଁ ସର୍‍କି୤

କୁଲର୍‍ ଏସି କାମ ନାଇଁ ଦେବାର ବିଜ୍‍ଲୀ ଯାଉଛେ ମିଲ୍‍କି
ଭିତରେ ଗହଦା ବାହାରେ ଝାଉ, ସମିଆ ଯାଇଛେ ଭଡ୍‍କି
ପଇସା ବାଲା ଦୁହାରି ହେଉଛନ୍‍ ସୁଟ୍‍ ବୁଟ୍‍ ନୂଆ ତାଡ୍‍କି
ତାକର ଧୁଇ ନାଇଁ ମର୍‍ଡି ନାଇଁ, ପଇସାର‌୍ ବଲେ ଦର୍‍ଡି
ଦୁଖର ପସ୍‍ରା ଗରିବ ଦୁଖିକର, ତାତିରେ ହେଉଛନ‌୍‍ ଖର୍‍‍ଡି୤

(This Samalpuri small poem was written on the midnight of 27/28 May 2015)

Rupee tumbles to 20 month low, so what?

As Rs breaches 64 to a $ mark, and thereby stumbling to 20 month low, people have started asking question about where our economy is really heading.

However, I do feel that this is a good opportunity for our exporters to profit more, this is a good opportunity for our NRI friends to contribute more, it is a good opportunity for us to control our import.

Many countries (for example Japan and China) frequently resort to reduce value of their currency to boost export. India had done that in the early 1990s. So rupee gaining or weakening against a foreign currency does not have much relevance as long as that is stable and as long as that starts affecting growth and purchasing power.

It is of course entirely a different matter that our current PM was of the view, when  he was the aspiring PM, that weakening rupee means a weakening economy. It will be interesting to hear his views as Rs has fallen from a strong 58 a $ when he took oath to 64 a $ a year after he took office.

Inflation lower... what does that mean for us?

In the early 2000s, USA had a CPI (read, inflation rate) of around 4% and its economy was considered healthy. Now India is having a CPI of 4.8%.

Good or bad? Ask the politicians... you will get diametrically different answers.

Good or bad? Economists will say bad...

As falling CPI indicates lesser growth in price rise... largely led by lesser purchasing capacity by consumers (of course, can also be caused by supply excess, but in such case Industrial production rate and growth rate has to be higher which is not so in India now)... which leads to lesser demand... which leads sub-optimal production... which leads to industrial/production inefficiency... which leads to losses... which leads to economic downfall... which may lead to deflation meaning shrinking economy (our wholesale price index is already in negative)

In 2008, when western economies went bust, US CPI went to negative. Since then US Federal Bank is trying hard to bring back inflation to about 4 percent at least, but it has failed in doing so till now.

The US economy had double digit inflation post world war II as well around 1980s. Both the period were golden period of growth for that country.

However, a comparision of India with US is not on even term. We should not forget that US is a 'developed' economy while ours is a 'developing economy'.

So, what is your idea about inflation?